DISCOVER Vol. 24 No. 1 (January 2003)
Table of Contents

TOP 100 YEAR IN SCIENCE STORIES 2002
ENVIRONMENT

3. Population Bomb Fizzles
The world's population bomb may not go off after all. Demographers assumed that development and education were the principal ways to reduce fertility rates in countries with soaring population growth. However, recent surveys, satellite data, and number crunching presented and analyzed at a United Nations meeting in March show that fertility rates are declining in some less-developed parts of the world. Mexico, Indonesia, and the Philippines have slowed their longstanding high rates of the 1950s to a replacement level of 2.1 children per couple. Thailand has dropped from 6.6 to 1.9; Iran's rate is down to an even 2. India's fertility rate of 6 in the 1950s has now dropped to 3.3.
    The widespread availability of contraceptives may be the biggest factor behind the decline. In the past third of a century, their prevalence worldwide has nearly doubled. Even in Brazil, with opposition from the Catholic Church, no government support, and no official family-planning programs, the fertility rate has dropped from 6.2 to 2.3. Roughly 40 percent of Brazilian women of reproductive age have been sterilized, says Joseph Chamie, who is director of the United Nations Population Division. "They've said, 'Enough's enough, we're closing the kitchen. No more coming out of the oven.'" Couples who once had more children than they wanted are now able to take control of the size of their families. Other factors include declining mortality rates and increasing urbanization. "Children aren't necessarily milking the cows, feeding the chickens, slopping the pigs, and taking care of the goats," says Chamie. "So the return from children is relatively limited in urban environments."
    If these trends continue, the population of the world may reach 9 billion by 2050 and level off at around 10 billion by the end of the century—1 or 2 billion fewer than earlier predictions. "It won't double again, and no one sees it going to 12," said Chamie. "It's like a slow-moving oil tanker: It's slowing down, but it will take awhile to stop."
— Michael Abrams